Preceded by the official recognition by France, a member of the UN Security Council, of the Moroccanness of Western Sahara, solemnly confirmed before the two chambers together, Emmanuel Macron's state visit to Morocco, which has just taken place from October 27 to 30, can be described as a complete success, both for the quality of the welcome reserved by King Mohammed VI for the French president (our photo) and for the quantity of agreements signed between the two states, which would represent a value of some 10 billion euros. The great Franco-Moroccan reconciliation notably resulted in the conclusion of a memorandum of understanding between the National Office of Railways (ONCF) and Alstom for the delivery of 18 trains for the Kenitra-Marrakech TGV link which should be operational before the 2030 World Cup. It remains to be seen what will happen to the LGV route, currently under study, between Marrakech and Agadir.
The future contract for the Kenitra-Marrakech section concerns a brand new TGV model, named Avelia Horizon (our image). In addition to the "reinforced exceptional partnership" that was announced and the long-standing presence of Alstom in Morocco, which supplied the rolling stock for the Tangier-Casablanca route named Al Boraq, which has been a huge success, the two levels that Avelia trains have proved decisive. Its competitors, the Spanish CAF and Talgo, as well as the South Korean Hyundai Rotem, only offered a single level. Many of the railway lots targeted by these companies, such as intercity trains and RERs, remain to be awarded.
To the great displeasure of the Chinese, once considered favourites, the memorandum of understanding signed between the CEO of Alstom and the director general of ONCF (photo Ludovic Marin/AFP) provides for the delivery of a train that is unique in the world, insofar as Avelia's 740 seats on two levels do not compromise the speed of 300 km/h, which will make it possible to meet high traffic volumes, while presenting advanced energy efficiency.
For passengers, the attractiveness of the journey will be maximum. Alstom specifies that the windows have been enlarged for a panoramic view of the landscapes (our Alstom image) and that the lighting will adapt to the intensity of natural light.
The question that arises, however, is that of delivery times.
The first commercial operation of the new TGV model from the French manufacturer is planned, if all goes well, in 2025 to connect Paris and Marseille. In the eyes of some observers, the 2029 horizon targeted by Morocco seems very ambitious, given the multiple production and delivery delays suffered by Alstom, due to the long-term effects of Covid-19 and the crisis in electronic components. On the manufacturer's side, however, it is specified that the Avelia Horizon platform "makes it possible to adapt the trains to customer requests quite easily".
What about the Marrakech-Agadir LGV section in this context? Initially, a route including a passage through Essaouira had been envisaged, with Chinese cooperation (our map).
The cost of the operation had been estimated at 2.1 billion euros, in a context of persistent competition between Beijing and Paris.
Turnaround in early 2024: China Railway Design Corporation, which is responsible for carrying out a preliminary design study on civil engineering infrastructure, equipment and operating system, recommends a route under the Atlas, with only three stations: in Sidi Zouine (new airport east of Marrakech), Chichaoua and Agadir. The station in the capital of Souss is still planned in the Al Mohammadi district. Essaouira feels cheated. The French company Egis Rail must supervise the civil engineering studies, technical installations, tunnels and operation.
The planned route is 240 km (234.5 to be precise). It would require 26.3 km of bridges and some 30 km of tunnels, the longest of which would be 12.19 km. The ONCF is considering a very interesting mixed traffic : 320 km/h for passenger trains and 100 km/h for freight trains, which will require a freight station.
The question of the subsequent connection with Taroudant and direction Guelmim will have to be taken into account (our map), this by 2040.
Estimated amount of the bill: 5 billion euros. The deputy general director of the ONCF admits that "certainly, these costs are high, but they can be recovered in 25 years, notably from taxes, but also from tourist and industrial activities, as well as through the GDP which will grow".
The fact remains that to date, no financial package has been published. While in terms of deadlines it is estimated that the Alstom trains will arrive just before the World Cup for the Kenitra-Marrakech section, has the train not already passed for the extension, before 2030, of the link to Agadir?
Or does an unexpected event still have a chance to occur? Does the head of government and mayor of Agadir, Aziz Akhannouch, have a hidden ace up his sleeve, he who accompanied the French president during his state visit (our photo)? The 2025 finance law could be a lead, as could the railway development plan.
Or do the Chinese have a surprise in store for us, they who seem to be holding on to this market?
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